企业财务困境修正Z模型的实证研究

针对奥特曼Z模型的不足之处进行了修正，寻找尽可能准确预测财务困境的模型，并选取我国上市公司中41家财务陷入困境的公司和41家财务正常的公司为样本，应用逐步回归分析法，研究了财务困境出现前2年这两类公司的20个财务指标，从中选定7个指标作为预测变量，主要采用Fisher判别分析和Logistic回归分析两种方法分别建立了财务困境预测模型。实证研究结果表明这2个模型与奥特曼的Z模型相比均有较好的预测效果，针对我国上市公司财务困境的预测准确度有显著提高。

The Empirical Studying of the Financial Distress Prediction by Modifying Altman Z-score Model

This paper,based on the financial distress situation in Chinese market, aimes to find a better financial distress model for the ST companies by modifying Altman Z-score model. It had reviewed the researches on the financial distress prediction model at home and abroad,analyzed and summarized the Altman Z-model so that some new research methodes have been proposed for the research samples design,the selection of variants and statistic method. In this paper, 41 ST companies and non-ST companies were taken as samples, Stepwise Regression Analysis were used, seven of 20 financial indices two years before the financial distress of ST companies were selected as prediction variants and finally two financial distress models were set up with Fisher Diseriminant Analysis and Logistic Regression Analysis. The results showed that compared with Altman Z-score model, these two models hvae good prediction effect, with more precision to predict the financial distress for public companies.