Perspectives on the linkage between typhoon activity and global warming from recent research advances in paleotempestology

The recent increase in typhoon (tropical cyclone) activity has attracted great interest and induced heated debates over whether it is linked to global warming or only a return to an active phase of the well-known multi-decadal variability. Due to the short instrumental record, our knowledge is quite scarce on the complex processes and mechanism of typhoon generation, development, and evolution, especially for the rare but highly destructive super-typhoons. It is therefore very important to extend the time span of typhoon activity records. Paleotempestology, a young science that emerged in the early 1990s, studies past typhoon activity spanning several centuries to millennia before the instru- mental era through the use of geological proxies and historical documentary records. This paper pre- sents a brief review and synthesis on the major research advances and findings of paleotempestology with an emphasis on proxy technique development and applications. The methodology has been evolving from single geologic proxy to multi-proxy techniques by integrating microfossils, sedimentary organic elemental ratios, and stable isotopes, together with typical sedimentary textures and structures, for the diagnosis of storm deposits. A newly-developed proxy technique is employing oxygen isotopes preserved in growing laminae of tree rings, cave stalagmites, and reef corals to diagnose typhoon rainwater impacts. Historical documentary records have been systematically compiled and analyzed to reconstruct the history of typhoon activity in some regions. The extracted typhoon-proxy data show that there does not exist a simple linear relationship between typhoon frequency and Holocene climate (temperature) change. Typhoon activity should have a secular and constant linkage with ENSO fluc- tuations, in that more typhoons and hurricanes make landfalls in China, Central and North America during La Niña years than El Niño years. This finding is consistent with that derived from recent in- strumental data. Shifts in positions of subtropical high exert great influence on storm tracks, but their long-term relationship is still not well understood. All these findings are significant in projecting ty- phoon trends under global warming scenarios. Future developments in paleotempestology should strengthen the following research fields: (1) proxy generation mechanism and preservation potential, (2) inter-validation of different proxy data, (3) recognition of storm and tsunami deposits, (4) evaluation of paleo-typhoon intensity, (5) numerical modeling, and (6) regional to global scale comparison studies.