广西北部湾海雾天气形成预测研究

本研究利用北部湾地区6个气象站的大雾记录及降水量、气温、相对湿度、风速、气压、露点等逐小时气象资料,采用相关分析和主成分分析法确定大雾形成的关键影响因子并分析其特征规律,利用逻辑回归分析法建立北部湾地区海雾预测模型,结果表明,相对湿度和风速是北部湾海域大雾天气的关键的影响因子。在相对湿度越大,风速越小时大雾天气出现的可能性越大,且大雾天气在相对湿度为95%~100%、风速为0~3 m/s时出现的频率最高。利用相对湿度和风速所建立的大雾预测模型对无雾天气预测准确率为75.2%,大雾天气预测准确率为77.9%,总预测准确率为76.6%,总体预测效果较理想。

Beibuwan Sea Fog Prediction using Meteorological data

Based on the observation data from six typical ground meteorological observation stations of Guangxi Beibuwan zone, the crucial factors for the sea fog formation and the characteristics were analyzed by correlation analysis and principal component analysis method. Then, sea fog prediction model was established using logistic regression method based on the change characteristics and regularity of these crucial factors. The results show that: relative humidity and wind speed are the key factors affecting the sea fog weather in the study area. The sea fog weather appearance probability was bigger with higher relative humidity and lower wind speed. Moreover, when the relative humidity was 95-100% and wind speed was 0-3m/s, the highest frequency of the sea fog appeared. The effect of the fog prediction model established through relative humidity and wind speed was ideal with the accuracy of 75.2% to no fog weather, 77.9% to sea fog weather and 76.6% to the above two conditions.