基于生存分析方法的公交站间行驶持续时间影响因素敏感性分析

站间行驶持续时间是公交周转时间的基本单元，是提高公交信息服务智能化与增强公交调度科学性的核心参数。基于生存分析方法，将到站时间可靠性阈值作为判定站间行驶持续时间生存状态的依据，提出站间行驶持续时间模型。通过K-M非参数方法对各个站间行驶持续时间的生存率进行预估，以Cox比例风险回归模型综合分析各因素对站间行驶持续时间的影响，以此判断各因素对站间行驶持续时间的敏感性。结果表明：道路拥堵状况与天气状况对其敏感度较高；上下车客流随着人数增加，敏感度随之增高。本研究可以为公交调度管理者周转时间预测提供运营参数支持。

Sensitivity Analysis of Factors Affecting the Inter-Station Driving Duration Based on Survival Analysis Method

Inter-station driving duration is the basic unit of bus turnover time,and it is the core parameter to improve the intelligence of bus information service and enhance the scientificity of bus scheduling. Based on the survival analysis method, the reliability threshold of arrival time was used as the basis for determining the survival state of inter-station driving duration, the model of an inter-station driving duration was proposed.The survival rate of inter-station driving duration was estimated by K-M non-parametric method,and the influence of various factors on inter-station driving duration was comprehensively analyzed by Cox proportional hazard regression model,so as to judge the sensitivity of various factors to inter-station driving duration.The results show that road congestion and weather conditions were more sensitive to it,as the number of passengers increased, the sensitivity increased. This study can provide operational parameter support for the turnover time prediction of bus dispatching managers.