| 离散Logistic人口增长预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 代涛,徐学军,黄显峰.离散Logistic人口增长预测模型研究[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2010,32(5):102-105. |
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| 作者姓名： | 代涛 徐学军 黄显峰 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]长江勘测规划设计研究院,武汉430010 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对人口预测的复杂非线性特点建立了Logistic模型,分析了Logistic方程曲线性质,并研究离散的Logistic模型具有的混沌遍历性,以非线性最小二乘法率定模型参数,用均方根误差等进行模型效果评价,通过实例分析,采用不同方法相互比较,验证了Logistic模型的有效性和适用性.
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| 关 键 词： | Logistic模型 人口预测 混沌遍历性 非线性最小二乘法 均方根误差 |
Study of Discrete Logistic Model of Population Increasing Prediction |
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| Dai Tao,Xu Xuejun,Huang Xianfeng.Study of Discrete Logistic Model of Population Increasing Prediction[J].Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Sciences),2010,32(5):102-105. |
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| Authors: | Dai Tao Xu Xuejun Huang Xianfeng |
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| Institution: | 1.Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research,Wuhan 430010,China;2.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
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| Abstract: | Aimed at the complexity and nonlinearity of population prediction,a Logistic model is established.The character of Logistic equation curve is analyzed;and the chaotic ergodicity of discrete Logistic model is also studied.Nonlinear least square method is used for model parameter calibration;and the model results is evaluated by root-mean-square error.The proposed model is applied to predict the population and compared with different methods.Validity and applicability of the model are proved. |
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| Keywords: | Logistic model population prediction chaotic ergodicity nonlinear least square method root-mean-square error |
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