资源受限下的人口迁移模型

人类行为的复杂性源于系统内部各组分间的相互作用和外部影响,而对受资源等自然因素制约的人类决策行为是少数被关注的人类动力学研究新方向.本文考虑资源受限下的农业人口迁移,结合"推-拉理论",在二维网格上建立了受粮食产量影响的人口迁移模型.通过模型模拟了不同区域人口及人均粮食产量的变化趋势,并通过引入信息熵对其人口分布变化进行分析.结果表明人口基数与经济水平相适应,资源才能得到充分合理的开发利用.信息熵呈先增后减的趋势,说明人口迁移行为经历了从无序到有序的发展过程.通过不同时刻人口规模斑图的对比,进一步展现了人口分布变化的趋势和特点.

A Model of Resource-constrained Population Migration

The complexity of human behavior springs from the interaction within the system between the various components and the external influences.Human decision behavior constraints on resources and other natural factors is a new direction,which is few concerned with the study of human dynamics.In this paper,considering agricultural population migration can be ruled by resources,with pull and push theory,building a model which can be influenced by agricultural development level on a two-dimension grid.The trends of changes in population and food production per capita of differents areas are discussed,and the changes of population distribution is analysed by using information entropy.The results showed that the development of the population should be suitable for the level of economic,resources can get to the development and utilization.Information entropy has the rule of first rose then descended,which means population migration has experienced a transition from disorder to order.By comparing the different time scale of population pattern,further shows the trend and characteristics of changes of population distribution.