| 中长期电力负荷预测的几种灰色预测模型的比较及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 张莉,吉培荣,杜爱华,何其新. 中长期电力负荷预测的几种灰色预测模型的比较及应用[J]. 三峡大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 31(3): 41-45 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张莉 吉培荣 杜爱华 何其新 |
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| 作者单位： | 三峡大学电气信息学院,湖北,宜昌,443002 |
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| 摘 要： | 对传统GM（1，1）模型，基于积分优化法的GM（1，1）模型，具有白指数律重合性的GM（1，1）模型，基于响应不变法的GM（1，1）模型，基于严格微分拟合法的GM（1，1）模型进行了详细分析比较．针对电力系统中长期负荷增长的特点，分析比较了以上5种模型的特点及其适用范围，为电力系统工作人员在年用电量预测中选择合适的灰色预测模型提供参考依据．
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| 关 键 词： | 中长期负荷预测 GM(1,1) 发展系数 |
Comparison and Application of Several Grey-forecasting Models to Mid-long Term Power Load Forecasting |
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| Zhang Li,Ji Peirong,Du Aihua,He Qixin. Comparison and Application of Several Grey-forecasting Models to Mid-long Term Power Load Forecasting[J]. Journal of China Three Gorges University(Natural Sciences), 2009, 31(3): 41-45 |
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| Authors: | Zhang Li Ji Peirong Du Aihua He Qixin |
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| Affiliation: | Zhang Li Ji Peirong Du Aihua He Qixin (College of Electrical Engineering Information Science,China Three Gorges Univ. , Yiehang 443002,China) |
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| Abstract: | The conventional GM（1, l） model, the GM（1,1） model based on integral optimization method, the GM（1,1） with white exponential law coincidence property, the GM（1,1） model based on response invariant method, and the GM（1,1） model based on strict differential fitting method, are compared and analyzed in de- dail. According to the specialty of mid-long term power load development, the characteristics and application scope of the above five kinds of GM（1,1） models have been analysed and compared. The results will be helpful for power system operators in choosing correct forecasting models in electricity demand forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) |
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