| 项目投资风险分析方法研究:一种基于影响图的解析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 石晓军,任志安.项目投资风险分析方法研究:一种基于影响图的解析方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,20(3):46-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石晓军 任志安 |
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| 作者单位： | (1)中国矿业大学（北京校区）经济管理系;(2)北京科技大学管理学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 将项目投资风险分析的解析方法和影响图的概率推理功能结合在一起 ,对如何应用影响图进行项目投资风险分析展开了研究 :构造了一个较为一般的项目风险分析的影响图模型 ;提出了项目风险超额报酬率的概念 ;给出了影响图因果概率推理的一个具体的解析支持算法.
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| 关 键 词： | 项目投资 风险分析 影响图 |
A Study on the Risk Analysis of Project Investment: A Method of Influence Causal Reference Based on a Supporting Analytical Algorithm |
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| SHI Xiao-jun,REN Zhi-an.A Study on the Risk Analysis of Project Investment: A Method of Influence Causal Reference Based on a Supporting Analytical Algorithm[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2000,20(3):46-49. |
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| Authors: | SHI Xiao-jun REN Zhi-an |
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| Institution: | (1) Beijing Campus, China University of Mining and Technology;(2)Management School, Beijing Technology University |
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| Abstract: | Combinating analytical method of project risk analysis and influence diagram, we study on how to implement influence diagrams(IDs) in project risk analysis(PRA): a basic IDs model for PRA is constructed; a concept, premium return rate of risk, is proposed; and a supporting analytical algorithm for IDscausal probability inference is given. |
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| Keywords: | project investment risk analysis influence diagrams(IDs) |
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