基于保障活动流程的保障设备需求量计算模型

为解决装备研制阶段保障设备数量预测过程中输入数据难得到、预测精度不高的问题，建立了基于保障活动流程的保障设备需求量计算模型。模型以研制阶段保障系统建模和保障分析数据为输入，分析并计算了功能分析框图中底层保障活动对保障设备的平均需求量和最大需求数量。然后，由功能分析框图中各层保障活动的流程逐层向上汇总得到其顶层保障功能的保障设备需求，进而算得站点内保障设备的配置数量。最后，给出一个歼击机外场保障设备需求量的算例验证了模型的合理性与工程适用性，能够为研制部门预测保障设备数量提供有效的理论与技术支持。

Quantitative forecast model of support equipment based on support activity flow

In order to resolve the problems encountered in the process of forecasting the number of equipment demanded by support system during the design and development phase, including the difficulty to collect the input data of the previous forecast models and their imprecise and unauthentic output results, a quantitative forecast model of support equipment is established based on support activity flow described by functional flow diagrams, which uses the data of support system modeling and the results of supportability analysis as input. First, the average and maximum number of support equipment demanded by the support activities in the bottom of the functional flow diagram is calculated and analyzed; then an approach to sum the average and maximum quantity of support equipment demanded by the support activities with logic relations in the same level of the functional flow diagram is presented, and the average and maximum number of support equipment demanded by the top level support activity is achieved; thereafter, the quantity of support equipment allocated in the support sites is calculated. Finally, the proposed model is demonstrated via a practical case of an aircraft, which proves that the model is correct and effective.