提高频率分析成果可靠性的有效途径—雨洪参数协调方法的探讨

目前水文界承认不同时段长度雨洪参数协调,是一条提高分析成果质量的有效途径,但在实际的频率分析中,目前尚无统一的参数协调准则.本文通过统计试验途径,对几种可行的协调方案作了比较.建议选用简便易行,适于规范化的“交点控制法”,在此基础上又提出一种更为合理的“高点综合法”.它除了具有上述优点外,还可以在协调过程中,考虑当地的雨量-历时-频率关系,综合多种历时雨量的资料系列进行适线,扩大了频率分析所依据的信息量,提高成果的精度,统计试验成果也表明这是一种有前途的方法.

An Effective Approach to Improving the Storm and Flood Frequency Analysis

In the frequency analysis for annual extremes of storm or flood in different time intervals, the curves of PDF estimated separately should be adjusted,if any two of them are intersected irrationally.And it is assumed by most Chinese hydrological engineers that the results of frequency analysis will be improved after such adjustment.However,no criterion and procedure are commonly accepted,so the adjustment has been carried out empirically.In the present paper,two adjustment procedures are proposed to avoid the intersections and to comprehensively analyze multiple samples. The suggested procedures can reduce the arbitrariness and make raise the accuracy of the estimates. The results of Monte Carlo test have come out encouragingly.