案例分析的多维情景空间方法及其在情景推演中的应用

本文提出多维情景空间方法,构建案例-情景-对象-要素四层架构的案例模型.多维情景空间方法以情景作为推演的基本单元,以要素作为情景表达的基本维度,建立多维空间坐标系统,从而将情景表达为多维情景空间中由若干个点构成的轨迹,实现对情景,情景相似度,情景推演的量化描述.基于该方法,以油罐火灾为例,选择近年来发生的若干典型油罐火灾案例,进行了案例分析与推理,建立了情景推演过程,并实现了基于情景推演的决策支持.

Study on case analysis and scenario deduction based on multi-dimensional scenario space method

This paper presents multi-dimensional scenario space method, and sets up case model with four layer structure corresponding to case-scenario-sub-scenario-element. Multi-dimensional scenario space method takes scenario as the basic reasoning unit, regards element as fundamental unit of scenario expression, and establishes element coordinate system, then, scenarios can be expressed as track consisting of a few quantitative points in scenario space. It reaches quantitative description of scenarios, furthermore, the quantitative description of similarity assessment and scenario deduction process. Taking typical oil tank fire cases in recent years as examples, study has carried out case analysis and reasoning, set up scenario deduction process and meanwhile realized decision-making support on the basis of this method.