人口密集区震后压埋人员伤亡及救援动态模型

根据对人口密集片区震后压埋人员伤亡及救援影响因素分析,结合系统动力学基本思想及原理从地震破坏子系统、人员伤亡子系统、应急救援子系统、抗震防灾子系统四个子系统,研究了人口密集片区震后压埋人员伤亡及救援过程中的动态反馈性;建立了人口密集片区震后压埋人员伤亡及救援系统动力学因果模型和流量模型;结合城市抗震防灾规划标准中对紧急避难场所、疏散道路等的建设要求,就重点人群密集片区不同发震时刻震后压埋人员伤亡及救援过程进行了动态模拟;并根据模拟结果对人员密集片区的防灾及紧急救援提出了相关的建议,为城市抗震防灾工作提供参考.

A dynamic model for buried casualties and emergency rescue in densely populated areas after earthquake

According to the influencing factors analysis of buried casualties and emergency rescue after earthquake in densely populated areas, and study on basic ideas and principles of system dynamics(SD), the dynamic feedback of system was analyzed from four subsystems that earthquake damage subsystem, casualties subsystem, emergency rescue subsystem and earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention subsystem, then the causal model and flow model based on system dynamics were established. Complied with the standard for urban planning on earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention for emergency shelter, evacuation roads and others, dynamic simulation on the buried casualties and emergency rescue of different earthquake moments after the earthquake was conducted, related recommendations were given for the disaster prevention and emergency rescue of densely populated areas;planning from the simulation results, to provide a reference for urban earthquake relief work.