基于模糊证据推理的突发事件风险分析模型

突发事件发生、发展和演化过程中的风险属性来源复杂,且相关信息具有不确定、不完备的特点.为准确分析这一特点下的突发事件运行风险问题,引入模糊证据推理构建分析模型.首先根据突发事件的结构化描述框架和故障模式影响危害分析(FMECA)方法构建突发事件风险属性识别框架,获取信息作为风险分析证据并对其进行规范化处理;然后以模糊证据推理构建突发事件风险分析的模型,通过计算,给出事件风险程度的合理判断;最后选取CRH某型动车组行车安全事件进行实例分析.分析结果表明,在分析突发事件风险时,针对信息不确定、不完备特点构建的模糊证据推理模型具有可行性与有效性,同时该模型能够为突发事件风险分析和风险应对决策的制定提供辅助参考.

Modeling on risk analysis of emergency based on fuzzy evidential reasoning

The risk attributes of emergency occurrence, development and evolution are derived from multiple complicated sources, and their related information is always uncertainty and incomplete. In order to accurately deal with emergency operation risk problems concerning these characteristics, a fuzzy evidential reasoning model is proposed. Firstly, the risk factors are identified under emergency structural description framework and FMECA (failure mode effects and criticality analysis), and some information is obtained as evidence for risk analysis and further is normalized. Secondly, a risk analysis model with fuzzy evidential reasoning is constructed, and the reasonable judgment criterion of the overall risk level is put forward. Finally, a certain CRH bullet train operation is taken as an example to analyze its traffic risk. The study results show that, when people analyze the emergency risk problem, the fuzzy evidential reasoning model concerning with uncertainty and incomplete is feasible and effective; furthermore, it could provide auxiliary support for emergency risk analysis and risk response.