| 基于突变理论的炼油企业爆炸事故风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁浩,朱玉明,张书通. 基于突变理论的炼油企业爆炸事故风险评价[J]. 甘肃科学学报, 2014, 26(5): 121-125 |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁浩 朱玉明 张书通 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东 青岛,266580
2. 中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东 青岛 266580;中海油气开发利用公司,北京 100027 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省自然基金“山东省油气产业结构的演进特征及优化驱动力研究”，中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 炼油企业安全事故直接关系到企业员工的人身安全,对炼油企业爆炸事故风险进行研究,有利于提升炼油企业的安全生产水平.在深入理解突变理论的基础上,构建影响炼油企业爆炸事故的因素体系,并以滨州某炼化企业为例,对企业爆炸事故的风险进行评价.研究结果表明：评价结果与该炼化企业近年来安全运行状况能够较好拟合,说明采用突变理论对炼油企业爆炸事故的评价具有可行性,为事故灾害的评价提供了新思路.
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| 关 键 词： | 炼油企业 突变理论 爆炸事故 指标体系 |
Risk Evaluation of Explosion Accidents in Oil Refining Enterprises Based on Catastrophe Theory |
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| DING Hao,ZHU Yu-ming,ZHANG Shu-tong. Risk Evaluation of Explosion Accidents in Oil Refining Enterprises Based on Catastrophe Theory[J]. Journal of Gansu Sciences, 2014, 26(5): 121-125 |
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| Authors: | DING Hao ZHU Yu-ming ZHANG Shu-tong |
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| Affiliation: | DING Hao,ZHU Yu-ming,ZHANG Shu-tong( 1.School of Economics ＆ Management ,China University of Petroleum ,Qingdao 266580,China; 2.CNOOC Oil-Gas Development ＆ Utilization Company ,Beijing 100027,China) |
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| Abstract: | Safe production is directly related to safety of employees and social property in oil refineries,and therefore research into risk in oil refining enterprises is essential for the prevention of explosion accidents.Based on the catastrophe theory,a system of factors responsible for accidents was designed and the explosion risk was evaluated,for example,in an oil refining enterprise in Binzhou.The results prove that the evaluation is consistent with the safe operation of the enterprise in recent years,and that the catastrophe theory is feasible to the evaluation of explosions in oil refineries and the research provides a new method for accident risk evaluation. |
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| Keywords: | Oil refining enterprises Catastrophe theory Explosion accidents Index system |
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