| 山东省碳排放强度预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张书通,喻洪仙,刘铭. 山东省碳排放强度预测研究[J]. 甘肃科学学报, 2014, 26(5): 137-141 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张书通 喻洪仙 刘铭 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛,266580 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金，山东省油气产业结构的演进特征及优化驱动力研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 节能减排是当前中国可持续发展的重要内容之一,研究山东省碳排放强度波动状况,有利于针对性地降低山东省的碳排放强度.采用情景分析法,预测了不同情景下2015年山东省的GDP和一次能源消费总量,并构建基于转移矩阵的马尔可夫模型对山东省2015年能源消费结构进行预测,在此基础上研究6种不同情景下山东省碳排放强度的状况.研究结果表明：优化能源结构和强化政府能源监管是降低山东省碳排放强度的有效措施.
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| 关 键 词： | 情景分析法 马尔可夫模型 碳排放强度 能源结构 |
Prediction of Carbon Emission Intensity in Shandong |
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| ZHANG Shu-tong,YU Hong-xian,LIU Ming. Prediction of Carbon Emission Intensity in Shandong[J]. Journal of Gansu Sciences, 2014, 26(5): 137-141 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Shu-tong YU Hong-xian LIU Ming |
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| Affiliation: | ( School of Economics and Management ,China University of Petroleum ,Qingdao 266580,China) |
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| Abstract: | The research of carbon emission intensity fluctuations in Shandong is conducive to reducing the carbon emission intensity of Shandong.The scenario analysis was utilized to predict the GDP and total primary energy consumption of 2015 under different scenarios of Shandong.The Markov model based on the transfer matrix was adopted to predict the energy consumption structure of Shandong in 2015 and the carbon emission intensity of Shandong under 6 different scenarios was researched.The results showed that the optimization of energy structure and the strengthening of government regulation were effective measures to reduce the carbon emission intensity of Shandong. |
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| Keywords: | Scenario analysis Markov model Carbon emission intensity Energy consumption structure |
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