玛纳斯河流域降水与径流变化及其人类活动的影响

玛纳斯河流域发源于北天山中段,消失于准噶尔盆地西缘,是天山北麓流量最大的内流河.河流贯穿于山地-绿洲-荒漠系统,地表过程复杂.其绿洲受人类活动影响较大.高山区的冰雪融水和玛纳斯河上游的降水是该流域的主要径流水源.文章根据玛纳斯河流域基本气象台站建站以来的月平均气温、降水和年平均气温、降水和流量的资料,使用概率统计时间序列方法分析了流域气温、降水和径流的年内、年际变化特点并对突变年代做了检测,就径流对气候变化的响应做进一步的探讨.结果表明：玛纳斯河流域升温趋势显著,50年温度序列Mann-Kendall方法突变检验,通过了α=0.05的置信检验,表明气温在1995年发生了由低到高的突变,气候变暖主要在冬季.降水1983年发生了由少到多的突变,降水增加主要在春季和夏季.进一步分析表明玛纳斯河流域径流变化与降水变化有密切的正相关性,与气温变化的关系较为复杂.

Influences of the Precipitation and Fluctuation of Discharge Rate of Manas River and Activity of Human

The Manas River,flows in the middle of the Northern Tianshan Mountains and fades away in the west part of the Zhungar Basin. It has a long flow that runs though Mountain region-oasis-desert system which has complicated earth surface processes. Main water source of Manas River comes from the thaw on high Mountains and the precipitation on its upper reaches. In this paper,we analyzes the relation between precipitation, temperature and the stream discharge by using some mathematical statistical methods. The analysis shows that the precipitation and the stream discharge have a good positive correlation on situation except in special years. Temperature and the stream discharge have positive correlation but not significant. We also analyze the trend of changing and use Mann-Kendall Method to check the abrupt point of temperature and precipitation.