东北地区典型水库控制流域径流变化及驱动因子分析

结合3种趋势检验及模糊直接识别法对水文要素变化进行分析.以东北地区9个水库控制流域的气象、水文数据及土地利用情况为基础,重点分析了径流变化及其驱动因子降雨、降雨年内分布、蒸发及土地利用等变化情况.根据径流及其他因子的变化特征将研究水库流域归类成气候变化显著型(汤河、碧流河、观音阁及葠窝水库流域)、土地利用变化显著型(闹德海及丰满水库流域)及自然状况较好型(白山、桓仁及大伙房水库流域),继而对各类流域分别有针对性地提出变化深入分析方法及水库运行管理建议,最终为东北水库流域典型水文变化的深入研究奠定基础.

Analyses of change trends of inflow and driving factors in typical reservoir-controlled basins, Northeast China

An inspection system,combined by three non-parametric tests and fuzzy recognition,is introduced to investigate the hydrological variation trends.Based on the meteorological & hydrological data and land use at 9 reservoir-controlled basins in Northeast China,the trend analyses were performed concerning the variation of inflow and its driving factors(i.e.precipitation,annual precipitation distribution,evaporation and land use).According to the results,the reservoir basins studied are classified into three types.One type of basins,mainly influenced by climate,includes Tang River,Biliu River,Guanyinge and Shenwo reservoir basins.The second type takes land use as its significant driving factor,including Naodehai and Fengman reservoir basins.The third type has good natural conditions,consists of Baishan,Huanren and Dahuofang reservoir basins.Furthermore,on the basis of the above conclusions,the recommendations for research direction and reservoir management in future are put forward,which will promote further analyses of hydrological change in reservoir-controlled basins,Northeast China.