武器装备开发的内生风险评估机制研究与研讨厅设计

武器装备开发集机械、电子、电控、通讯与信息等技术于一体,系统内在因素导致的风险种类繁多,层次复杂,具有复杂系统的特点。综合集成研讨厅是中国科学家钱学森院士提出的处理开放复杂巨系统的方法论,是综合集成了计算机技术、专家群体智慧的人机结合系统。本文针对武器装备开发内生风险的特点,研究了风险评估机制的内涵及相关制度,并将技术路线图与综合集成研讨厅方法用于该机制的建设,给出了风险评估综合集成研讨厅的概念模型,阐述了使该模型有效运作的机制,最后就研讨厅系统设计与实现作了探讨。

Endogenous Risk Assessment Mechanism of Weapons Exploitation and Design of Hall for Workshop of Metasynthetic Engineering

Exploitation of weapons collects machinery, electronics, electronic control, communications and information technology together. Risk factors caused by the system itself have wide range of levels of complexity and have the characteristics of complex system. Hall for workshop of metasynthetic engineering, proposed by Chinese scientist Qian Xuesen, dealing with open complex giant system methodology, is composed of expert group wisdom and computer technology. The problem of risk assessment mechanism of weapons exploitation is studied. Firstly, endogenous Risk of weapons exploitation is analyzed. Secondly, mechanism of the endogenous risk assessment and its related rules are proposed, and HWME risk assessment conceptual model is obtained. Thirdly, we design the mechanisms to make the model effective. Finally, we discuss the design and realization of HWME.