计及源荷双侧不确定性的综合能源系统优化配置

以源–网–荷–储的综合能源系统为研究对象，同时考虑源侧风光出力及负荷预测误差的双重不确定性对系统优化配置的影响。为提高系统的稳定性与经济性，以总成本最小为目标，采用价格需求响应中的分时电价研究策略。首先选用模糊聚类方法对用户负荷进行时段划分，然后采用机会约束将源荷双侧不确定性转化为确定性，再对供需平衡及设备约束的综合能源系统构建系统优化配置模型，最后对不同场景进行算例仿真。仿真表明所提出的定价机制具有削峰填谷作用，且不同场景下的优化配置有显著差异，验证了所提方法的有效性。

Optimal configuration of integrated energy system with uncertain generation and load

Taking the source-network-charge-storage integrated energy system as the research object, the influence of the dual uncertainties of source-side wind-power output and load prediction error on the optimal configuration of the system was considered. In order to improve the stability and economy of the system, aiming at the minimum total cost, the research strategy of time-of-use electricity price in price demand response was adopted. Firstly, fuzzy clustering method was used to divide user load into time periods, and then opportunity constraint was used to transform source-load uncertainty into certainty. Then, system optimization allocation model was built for the integrated energy system with supply-demand balance and equipment constraint. Finally, numerical simulation was carried out for different scenarios. Simulation results show that the proposed pricing mechanism has the effect of peak cutting and valley filling, and the optimal configurations in different scenarios are significantly different, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.