中国资源型城市"三生系统"耦合协调时空分异演变及其影响因素分析

在构建资源型城市“三生系统”耦合协调发展评价指标体系的基础上，通过熵权法、耦合协调度模型、回归分析等，对中国104个资源型城市2001—2017年耦合协调发展时空演化特征及其影响因素进行系统分析．结果发现:1）中国资源型城市“三生系统”的耦合协调度呈上升趋势，但是发展速率仍较慢；2）在空间变化上呈现“西南地区波动幅度较小、西北地区上升较快、华东地区零散波动、华北和东北起伏最大”的分布特征；3）经济增长、实际利用外资、科技、社会保障、教育与节能环保等要素投入增加对耦合协调起到明显促进作用，工业发展、空间扩张与单位GDP能耗上升对耦合协调起到显著制约．资源型城市今后应该:加快打破传统资源产业的路径依赖，培育战略新兴产业、现代服务业等替代产业，深度参与国际产业分工；加强社会保障、教育事业和科学技术体系的建设；选择高效和集约的发展方式进行城市公共基础设施建设和土地开发；从技术层面改变经济发展方式和人民生活方式，从根本上减弱人类经济社会活动对于生态系统的影响． 

Spatial and temporal diversity patterns and influencing factors in"production system-life system-ecosystem"coupled coordination in resource-based cities in China

An evaluation index for coupled coordinated development of “production system-life system-ecosystem” in resource-based cities was constructed, spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of coordinated development from 2001 to 2017 in 104 resource-based cities in China were analyzed with entropy weight method, coupled coordination degree model, and regression analysis．The coupled coordination degree of the “production system-life system-ecosystem” is found to be on the rise, but development rate is slow．The problem of uncoordination in resource-depleting cities has emerged．Small fluctuation range is found in Southwest China, fast rise in Northwest China, scattered fluctuation in East China, largest fluctuation in North and Northeast China．Economic growth, actual utilization of foreign capital, science and technology, social security, education, energy conservation and environmental protection and other factors are found to all play significant roles in promoting coupled coordinated development．Industrial development, spatial expansion, and energy consumption per unit GDP are found to play a significant restrictive role in coupled coordinated development．In future, resource-based cities should break swiftly path dependence of traditional resource industries, but cultivate strategic emerging industries, modern service industries and other alternative industries, and participate in international industrial division of labor．Construction of social security, education, scientific and technological system must be strengthened．Efficient and intensive development methods should be selected for urban public infrastructure construction and land development．Alterations in economic development and life style at the technical level will fundamentally weaken the impact of economic and social activities on the ecosystem．