基于D藤Copula的河湖水系连通伴生水污染风险识别建模方法研究

河湖水系连通作为提高水资源利用率、优化水资源配置的有效举措，在水资源保护与开发利用中越来越受重视．河湖水系连通工程在促进河湖生态环境改善、缓解水资源分配不均的同时，也伴随着诸多不确定性因素．针对河湖水系连通可能带来的伴生风险，基于D藤Copula函数在风险种类与指示因子之间建立辨识体系，根据指示因子的变化情况识别可能产生的风险．本研究以南四湖连通为例，应用水污染风险识别模型识别出NH₃-N、TN、Chla等物质为工程运行后水环境联合风险的关键因子，建议重点关注TN指标．计算结果表明，该建模方法能够实现水质风险识别，可以为河湖水系连通伴生风险识别管控工作提供技术支持． 

A D-vine Copula-based model for identification of associated water pollution risk in interconnected river system network

In water resource conservation and development, interconnected river system network (IRSN) has become an effective measure to increase water resources efficiency and allocation．IRSN improves heterogeneous distribution of water resources and freshwater ecological restoration．However, uncertainties due to natural and anthropogenic forces still exist．Therefore a D-vine Copula-based model was developed to identify risk factors in IRSN．IRSN of Nansi Lake was utilized to identify risk of water quality indicators before and after the connection project．Three water quality indicators (NH₃-N, TN and Chla) were considered primary risk factors．Water resource managers are suggested to pay more attention to TN．The D-vine Copula-based model provides useful reference and technical assistance in IRSN projects．