基于生态风险的土壤重金属贝叶斯综合污染评价法

考虑到确定性土壤污染评价中较大的参数不确定性,将贝叶斯理论应用于土壤重金属污染评价中,并考虑到不同重金属在生态风险上的差异,建立了生态风险权重系数,提出了基于生态风险权重的土壤重金属污染贝叶斯评价法.将提出的贝叶斯综合污染评价法与现行的确定性方法、商权贝叶斯评价法和灰色评价法进行实例研究对比.研究表明,基于生态风险的土壤重金属贝叶斯综合污染评价结果分别为各采样点土壤环境质量隶属于各污染级别的概率,降低了常用评价法中人为主观因素的作用,构建的生态风险权重系数代替统计数理方法所得到的权重,使本方法更具土壤学意义,为土壤重金属污染防控决策提供了更科学的筛选级参考,具较高的评价分辨力.

An Integrated Bayesian Soil Pollution Assessment Model Based on Ecological Risk Weight

Bayesian theory was introduced to soil quality assessment in order to reducing parameter uncer- tainty of current assessment method. An integrated Bayesian soil pollution assessment model based on ec- ological risk weight was developed. Afterwards, a real soil pollution site was put forward to test and verify the integrated Bayesian soil pollution assessment model. And with comparative analysis among common assessment methods, the results of the integrated Bayesian soil pollution assessment model based on eco- logical risk weight were a series of probabilistie membership level, and owned more comprehensive conno- tation of soil science, and higher evaluation resolution which provided more scientific references to deci- sion maker.