多样性和归纳推理与证券市场动力机制

以前期建立的多智能体证券市场人工模型为平台,采用仿真分析的方法,研究了多样性和归纳推理在证券市场动力机制的作用,发现智能体策略的多样性是系统稳定的基础;在对称信息下,趋势交易作为一种可选交易风格不会导致系统波动增大,反而可以进一步提供多样性,稳定系统;归纳推理是产生收益率分布尖峰肥尾现象的关键因素之一.

Study on the Diversity and Inductive Reasoning in Securities Market

In this paper,we study on the effects of diversity and inductive reasoning on the dynamics of artificial stock market based on a multi-agents models developed by our prior papers.We find the diversity of agents' expectations is the key factor to stabilize the system which is lack of negative feedback mechanism;Trend trading as an optional trading style will not enlarge the fluctuations but bring more diversity of expectations when the information is symmetric;Inductive reasoning meanwhile is one of the key factors that can reproduce the stylized facts,such as fat-tailed distribution.The results of our research are explicit from the two-fold viewpoints of complex adaptive system and stock market.