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期权理论及其在水利水电工程方案选择中的应用
引用本文:麻荣永,卞春雷,邹双凤.期权理论及其在水利水电工程方案选择中的应用[J].广西大学学报(自然科学版),2009,34(3).
作者姓名:麻荣永  卞春雷  邹双凤
作者单位:广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁,530004
基金项目:国家863计划,广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目 
摘    要:首先简单介绍了水利水电工程方案经济评价中传统的效益净现值法及其局限性,然后引入期权理论,论证了期权理论应用于水利水电工程方案经济评价的可行性,指出期权理论是对净现值法的改进和完善,给出了期权法的具体评价方法,最后将期权法应用于桂林漓江补水工程方案选择,评价结果与实际情况吻合.

关 键 词:水利工程  经济评价  实物期权  灰色理论

Option theory and its application of water conservancy and hydropower project
MA Rong-yong,BIAN Chun-lei,ZOU Shuang-feng.Option theory and its application of water conservancy and hydropower project[J].Journal of Guangxi University(Natural Science Edition),2009,34(3).
Authors:MA Rong-yong  BIAN Chun-lei  ZOU Shuang-feng
Institution:College of Civil and Architectural Engineering;Guangxi University;Nanning 530004;China
Abstract:This article firstly briefly introduced the definition of the discounted cash flow method and its limitations in the field of economic evaluation of water conservancy and hydropower,then the option theory recommended,which demonstrated its appraisal feasibility to apply in the economic evaluation of water conservancy and hydropower,and then pointed out that the option theory was improvement and the perfection of the discounted cash flow method,and gave the concrete assessment method of the option method,fin...
Keywords:hydraulic engineering  economic evaluation  real options  grey theory  
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