企业财务困境短期与中长期预测指标的比较实证研究

首先分析企业财务困境的发生过程,然后提出系统化的预测指标选择方法,并根据该方法分别建立企业财务困境的短期和中长期预测指标体系,以研究反映企业短期与中长期财务状态的关键指标及其差别.最后使用建立的预测指标体系进行提前期为1年至5年的财务困境预测,通过实证分析说明其合理性和有效性.实证结果还表明,不同提前期下财务困境预测需要不同的预测指标.

A comparative empirical study on predicting variables for short-term and long-term corporate financial distress prediction

The occurrence of corporate financial distress is analyzed, and then a systematic approach for the predicting variables selection is proposed. Based on the proposed approach, systems of predicting variables for short-term and long-term financial distress prediction are established respectively, and the differences among key variables that reflect the short-term and long-term corporate financial status are investigated. By using different systems of predicting variables obtained, different financial distress prediction models are constructed and applied to financial distress prediction with lead time varying from 1 year to 5 years. The empirical result verifies the validity and effectiveness of the established systems of predicting variables. It is also indicated that different predicting variables are required for accurate financial distress prediction over different prediction lead times.