机群出动能力的Markov模型

以往在评估武器装备的效能时,只注重其基本性能和作战能力,而忽视了包括出动能力在内的可用性指标,而作战仿真中这类指标往往是决定仿真真实性的关键。建立了有备份飞机条件下机群出动能力的Markov模型。根据故障率和所需出动飞机的数量,确定了备份飞机数量和维修组数,所模拟得到的数据曲线符合实际情况,可应用于陆基或舰基机群出动能力的评估和分析,其分析方法对优化飞机装备配备和保障资源配置具有重要意义。

Markov Model of Air Fleet Sortie Ability

In the existing methods of the weapon effectiveness evaluation, only the basic performance and battle ability were considered, and the indexes of availability including the sortie ability were ignored. In fact, these indexes are important to obtain simulation results. A Markov model of the sortie ability of air fleet, in case that backup aircrafts were available, was proposed. Based on the fault rate and the amount of the sortie airplanes needed, the amount of backup airplanes and the number of maintaining groups could be derived. The derived curves are reasonable, and it can be applied to the sortie ability evaluation of the of air fleet based on the land and warship. The research is significant to the optimization of the configuration of aircrafts and maintenance resource.