基于灰色理论的蓄电池容量预测

为进一步满足电力、通信、铁路、交通管理等系统对直流电源可靠性的要求,加强对蓄电池组的在线监测及容量预测评估,针对蓄电池容量存在随温度等外部条件而产生周期性变化的特点,提出了实时在线、新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型,研究了GM(1,1)模型的建模方法及误差精度检测与评定方法.计算机实际模拟证明,新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型能够明显地提高预测精度,增加预测可靠程度,从而实现蓄电池容量的早期预测评估.

Forecasting of cell capacitance based on grey theory

For further satisfying the reliability requirement to the DC supply in electrical technology,communication technology,railway,transport management,etc.,and for forecasting evaluation and online inspecting to the capacity of the storage cell,a real-time online metabolic GM(1,1) forecast model used to forecast the cell capacity is established based on the features of the storage cell that its capacity will periodically change with external condition,such as temperature.The modeling method and test and evaluation to the error precision of GM(1,1) are researched.The results of simulation indicate that the metabolic GM(1,1) forecast model can obviously improve the precision of forecasting,increase the reliability of forecasting.So it can do the early forecasting evaluation to the capacity of storage cell.