不确定条件下专用实物资产投资估价实证研究——以煤制油项目为例

以煤制油项目为例,探索实物期权在不确定条件下专用实物资产投资估价中的具体运用,以提高项目估价的有效性,加快理论向应用转换的进程,并为中国煤制油发展提出合理的政策建议。DCF分析结果显示,财务内部收益率低于行业基准收益率,该项目不可行。但是,DCF法忽略了专用实物资产投资的不可逆性、可等待性和期权性以及未来收益的不确定性,从而导致在不确定条件下对专用实物资产投资估价失真。因此,利用修正后的二项式模型对项目进行了重新估价,研究表明煤制油项目具有较大的等待价值,特别是战争等突变因素发生时,其价值将是巨大的。

Study on Investment Valuation of Special Real Assets under Uncertainty——Example of the Coal Liquefaction Project

Taking example of the coal liquefaction project,the thesis is aiming to explore practical applications of real option for special real assets investment and assessment under uncertainty and improve the project assessment performance.It will expedite the application process from theoretical studies,which would formulate the solid recommendation towards China's coal liquefaction.The results from DCF analysis indicates that the Project would not feasible due to lower FIRR compared to benchmarked FIRR in the sector.However,the DCF methodology does not take the inreversibility;await ability and option character and uncertainty for future benefit into consideration,which would lead failure of special real assets investment under uncertainty.The author conducted the reassessment the coal liquefaction project through the revised binomial model and the result indicated that valuable waitness opportunities would appear in the case of accidental evens such as war.