基于Logistic回归模型的陕西秦巴山区林地变化驱动力分析

【目的】探究陕西秦巴山区林地时空变化及其驱动因素,为林地保护和林地资源可持续利用提供依据。【方法】基于土地利用遥感监测数据,分析秦巴山区2000—2018年林地变化及其景观格局的时空特征;选择自然、社会经济和地理区位3类共12个影响因子,运用Logistic回归模型分别对秦巴山区林地增加和减少驱动因素进行分析。【结果】2000—2018年秦巴山区林地以净增加为主,林地净增加39951.72 hm²,增加主要来源于21.83万hm²耕地转为林地,占林地转入总面积的94%。自然和地理区位因素是陕西秦巴山区林地转化的最主要驱动因素。海拔、到城镇的距离、年均气温倾向率、土壤有机质含量、坡度≥25°、到农村居民点的距离等是林地增加的主要驱动因子。海拔、坡度≥15°~25°、到城镇的距离、到道路的距离等则是林地减少的主要驱动因子。【结论】退耕还林等生态修复工程的有效实施是秦巴山区林地增加的重要原因,而林地减少则是在社会经济快速发展背景下,自然和地理区位因素共同作用的结果。

Drivers of forestland change in the Qinba Mountain region of Shaanxi based on the Logistic regression model

【Objective】This study sought to clarify the spatio-temporal changes in forest land and its drivers in the Qinba Mountain region of Shaanxi Province,China,and provide basis for forest land protection and sustainable utilization of forest land resource.【Method】Using remote-sensing and monitoring data of land use,this study first analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of forest land changes and landscape patterns in the Qinba Mountain region from 2000 to 2018.Then,we selected three categories(i.e.,natural,socio-economic and geographic)including 12 influencing factors to conduct driving force analysis of increase and decrease to forestland in the Qinba Mountain region via Logistic regression model.【Result】From 2000 to 2018,the forested land area primarily experienced a net increase,where the total increase was 39951.72 hm²;this was mainly converted from cultivated land.Specifically,the conversion of cultivated land to forested land was 218300 hm²,accounting for 94%of the total forested land area.Natural and geographical drivers were the most important forces driving forested land change in the Qinba Mountain region.The dominant drivers of increase in forest land included factors such as altitude,distance to town,slope-temperature,soil organic matter content,slope≥25°,and distance to rural residential areas.The dominant drivers for decreased forested land included factors such as altitude,slope of 15°-25°,distance to town,and distance to road.【Conclusion】Effective implementation of ecological restoration program such as the Grain for Green program is an important reason for the increase of forested land in the Qinba Mountain region.The decrease in forested land was caused by the combination of natural and geographic drivers in the context of a rapidly developing society and economy.