中小型滑坡隐患点状态判别分析法及结果分析

针对中小型滑坡灾害的特点,比较了各种稳定性评估方法的优缺点,得出工程类比法更加符合中小型滑坡灾害隐患点状态评估的现状。为此,将一种多元统计分析的判别函数法应用到滑坡灾害隐患点状态的评估中,建立了一种以历史资料为基础的工程类比法。首先确定了中小型滑坡灾害影响因素,根据历史资料分析了影响因素指标与稳定性的相关性然后将稳定性作为多维统计变量,投影到一维直线上,使得由不同稳定性总体产生的投影点尽可能分开,再利用距离判别法来建立判别准则。以重庆市武隆为例,进行实际评估,并验证了该方法的正确率和适用范围,得出该方法作为一种定性评估方法具有一定的实用性,适用于重庆市或具有类似地质环境的地区。

Stability assessment method for small and medium potential landslides and results analysis

Small and medium landslides are widely distributed, the prediction mainly relies on the monitoring and controlling systems executed by the masses. The advantages and disadvantages of various stability assessment methods are compared. The engineering analogy method accords with the requirements for small and medium landslide assessment. A method is illustrated based on Fisher discrimiant function to cope with the small and medium potential landslide stability assessment. The impact factors of landslides is explored with the historical data. The stability is taken as a multi-dimensional statistical variable and project into one-dimensional straight line. Distance discriminant method is used to construct a classification criterion. The applicability of this method is explored, and assessed the landslides in Chongqing Wulong by this method. The results show that accuracy of this method is about eighty percent. This method is suitable for the city of Chongqing or other areas with the similar geological environment.