路基沉降的灰色理论预测及其应用

运用灰色理论,对铁路高填方路基的沉降进行预测,建立了GM(1,1)预测模型.以相同观测时段的GM(1,1)模型为原型,考虑荷栽变化,针对地基土体均匀的情况,提出了GM(1,1)修正模型.通过具体实例,对模型的预测结果进行分析.分析表明,用修正模型预估下一级加载后的沉降,选取适当的沉降变化比进行计算,预测值与实测值之间误差小于6%,方法简单可靠,对类似高填方路基工程有一定参考价值.

Grey Prediction of Embankment Settlement and Its Application

According to the gray theory, a forecasting model of GM (1,1) about railway high fill embankment is established in the present paper. Then base on equal time-interval GM (1,1) model, and take the variation of embankment load into consideration, a modified GM (1,1) model is put forward for embankment filled with uniform ground soil. The forecasting result is analyzed by engineering practical example. By using modified model to forecast settlement,the analyzing conclusion indicates that the forecasting error is less than 6% through choosing proper settlement variation ratio. The computing method is simple, and the error is small between forecasting result and observing result. In the end, some valuable conclusions for other similar high fill embankment project are achieved.