人才是会“流失”还是“集聚”——中西部地区高等教育规模影响科技人才集聚的实证分析

高等教育发展状况是吸引人才流入的外在动因,也是当地人口迁移的潜在驱动力,影响人才流动的“推力”和“拉力”同时动态存在,最终致使地区人才流失或集聚。基于2009—2019年的省级面板数据,检验高等教育规模对科技人才集聚的效应机制,重点关注净经济劣势下中西部地区高等教育规模扩张对省域内科技人才集聚的影响。结果表明:高等教育是省域内科技人才集聚的关键动因,中西部地区高等教育规模对科技人才集聚的倒U型效应显著,但受制于净经济劣势,高等教育规模扩张较快产生导致人才相对流失的净“推力”效果。具体而言,西部地区高等教育规模扩张对研究生科技人才有“拉力”作用,但进一步扩张可能致使其未来面临科技人才总量的相对“流失”。中部地区高等教育规模与科技人才集聚之间呈现一定的倒U型关系,从侧面反映出高等教育规模对科技人才潜在的“推力”作用。此外,中西部科技人才具有显著“人随钱动”的集聚特征。破解中西部地区高等教育规模扩张与科技人才流失之间的内生循环困境,需进一步削减“推力”、创新“拉力”,完善高教体制分权化改革,厚植高校扎根地方情怀,释放产学研一体化集群创新活力,建成经费、政策、公共服务综合支持体系。

Brain Drain or Talents Agglomeration:An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of the Higher Education Scale on the Agglomeration of Scientific and Technological Talents in the Central and Western China

The development of higher education is not only the external motivation to attract talent inflow,but also the potential driving force affecting local population migration.The“push”and“pull”affecting talent flow exist dynamically at the same time,resulting in regional brain drain or agglomeration.Based on the provincial panel data from 2009 to 2019,the effect mechanism of the scale of higher education was testified on the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents,focusing on the impact of the expansion of the scale of higher education in the central and western regions on the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents in the province under the net economic disadvantage.The results show that higher education is the key motivation for the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents in the province.The scale of higher education in the central and western regions has a significant inverted U-shaped effect on the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents,but subject to the net economic disadvantage,the rapid expansion of the scale of higher education produces a net“thrust”effect leading to the relative loss of talents.Specifically,the expansion of higher education scale in the western region still maintains a net“pull”effect on graduate scientific and technological talents,but further expansion may lead to the relative“loss”of the total number of scientific and technological talents in the future.There is a certain inverted U-shaped relationship between the scale of higher education and the agglomeration of scientific and technological talents in the central region,which reflects the potential“push”effect of the scale of higher education on scientific and technological talents.In addition,the scientific and technological talents in the central and western regions have the agglomeration characteristics of“people flowing with money”.To solve the endogenous cycle dilemma between the expansion of higher education scale and the loss of scientific and technological talents in the central and western regions,the“thrust”should be further reduced,innovation“to be pulled”,the decentralization reform of higher education system to be improved,deeply holding the feeling of colleges and universities taking root in local,releasing the innovation vitality of industry university research integration clusters,and building a comprehensive support system of funds,policies and public services.