长三角城市群城镇化质量与规模的时空错位及影响因素分析

城镇化质量和规模是衡量城镇化发展水平的两个方面，二者发展的时空错位是当前中国城镇化发展所面临的重要矛盾.文章选取长三角城市群26市为研究对象，运用线性加权综合法对2009—2019年城镇化质量与规模进行综合测度，通过泰尔系数、标准差椭圆模型和空间重叠性、空间错位指数及空间回归模型探究其时空格局、错位程度及影响因素.结果表明： 1) 研究时段内，城镇化水平由“规模驱动”转向“质量驱动”，其变化取决于中低水平城市数量的替变转移上；随时间维度变化，城镇化质量提高显著，内部差异逐步缩小；城镇化规模内部差异扩大，规模结构不合理现象有所突显.2) 空间分布上：城镇化质量始终以中水平地区为主，高水平地区不断增加，低水平地区持续减少；城镇化规模始终保持“中部凸起”的分布格局，中等规模城市逐渐取代了小规模城市，成为区域主导的城镇化规模类型.3) 城镇化质量与规模空间错位：长三角城市群城镇化质量与规模存在明显的空间错位，且城镇化质量与规模的空间错位现象主要由小部分城市的不匹配造成的.4)城镇化质量与规模的空间错位受多种因素的影响，人均GDP、每万居民拥有公共交通车辆、人口城镇化率、土地城镇化率和财政支出占GDP的比重对空间错位指数有显著影响，其中人均GDP和土地城镇化率对空间错位指数贡献最大，其他因素不显著.

Spatiotemporal dislocation and influencing factors of urbanization quality and scale in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

The quality and scale of urbanization are two aspects to measure the level of urbanization development， and the spatio-temporal dislocation of their development is an important contradiction facing the current urbanization development in China. In this paper， 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are selected as the research object， and the quality and scale of urbanization from 2009 to 2019 are comprehensively measured by the linear weighted synthesis method. The temporal and spatial pattern， dislocation degree and influencing factors are explored by theil coefficient， standard deviation ellipse model， spatial overlap， spatial dislocation index and spatial regression model.The results are shown as follows. 1) During the study period， the urbanization level changed from “scale-driven” to “quality-driven”， and its change was determined by the number of middle and low level cities. With the change of time dimension， the quality of urbanization improved significantly， and the internal differences gradually narrowed. The internal differences of urbanization scale are widening， and the unreasonable phenomenon of scale and structure is somewhat prominent. 2) In terms of spatial distribution， the quality of urbanization is mainly in the middle level regions， with the high level regions increasing and the low level regions decreasing. The urbanization scale always maintains the distribution pattern of “central bulge”， with the medium-sized cities gradually replacing the small cities and becoming the region-dominated urbanization scale type. 3) Spatial mismatch of urbanization quality and scale there is an obvious spatial mismatch between the quality and scale of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration， and the phenomenon of spatial mismatch between the quality and scale of urbanization is mainly caused by the mismatch of a small number of cities. 4) Spatial mismatch of urbanization quality and scale is influenced by many factors. GDP per capita， public transportation vehicles per million residents， population urbanization rate， land urbanization rate and fiscal expenditure as a propotion of GDP have significant influences on spatial mismatch index， among which GDP per capita and land urbanization rate of spatial mismatch contribut the most， while other factors are not significant.