考虑新能源不确定性多场景下互联电网停电风险评估

为了探究新能源出力不确定性对电网停电事故的影响并在互联电网中选择合适的新能源接入节点,提出了一种非时序蒙特卡洛停电事故演化模型和分场景研究新能源接入互联电网停电风险评估的方法。首先,对以风电、光伏为代表的新能源出力的不确定性进行建模;然后,通过非时序蒙特卡洛法得到新能源的出力,结合SOC-Power Failure模型形成了改进的停电事故演化模型;最后,利用该模型分多场景对IEEE118电网做了停电事故演化仿真,通过层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)法综合事故损失负荷概率(loss of load probability,LOLP)、事故损失负荷期望值(expected loss of load,ELOL)、事故相关节点期望值(expected power failure bus,EPFB)指标得到了综合性评估指标RISK,并利用RISK评估确定了新能源最佳接入场景,验证了模型的可行性及分场景仿真方法的实用性。

Assessment of Power Failure Risk in Interconnected Power Grid under Multi-scenario Considering New Energy Uncertainty

In order to explore the impact of new energy uncertainty on power failure and the choice of new energy buses in interconnected power grid, evolution model of non-sequential Monte-Carlo power failure is proposed. Assessment of power failure risk in interconnected power grid under multi-scenario is proposed to study the access of new energy. Firstly, modeling the uncertainty of wind power and photovoltaic power generation; Then, the non-sequential Monte-Carlo method is used to obtain the output of new energy, and a power failure evolution model is established based on SOC-Power Failure model. Finally, doing power failure evolution simulation in IEEE118 grid by this model in different scenario, the RISK value is obtained by integrating the LOLP, ELOL and EPFB indicators by AHP method, and the best access scenarios of new energy are determined by RISK value. The scenarios of new energy with the lowest power failure risk and the weak lines in the power grid are verified, which verifies the feasibility of the model and the practicability of the multi-scenario simulation.