气候变化背景下宁夏泾河水资源变化分析

为当地适应气候变化决策提供技术依据,用Mike 11水文模型研究气候变化背景下泾河水资源变化趋势.依据泾河1982—2000年实测降水径流资料,率定建立泾河流域降雨径流模型参数,然后根据气候情景数据,借助经过验证的降水径流模型,预测未来气候变化对宁夏南部山区水资源的影响.结果表明,对泾河1982—1998年实测径流进行模拟,模拟平均径流深与实测径流深拟合程度较好,相对误差为7.2%;逐日径流过程线形状吻合,模拟与实测流量的峰值吻合;低流量平水期吻合较好,在丰水期吻合差一些,二者总体拟合较好.根据PRECIS区域B2气候情景数据(2011-01-10,50km×50km网格),预测南部山区地表径流呈减少趋势.相对于多年平均值,泾河流域地表径流未来减少8.5%²4.3%.泾河干流径流减少幅度较大,将会对东山坡引水、固原东部引水工程造成影响,水资源短缺形势不容乐观,宁夏中南部水资源供需矛盾可能进一步加大.

Analysis on Change Tendency of Water Resource in Ningxia Jinghe River under Climate Change

Under the background of climate change, this study on change tendency of Jinghe River water resources by Mike 11 hydrology modeling software will provide technology reference for local adapting strategy. Based on observation data of Jinghe River＇s rainfall and runoff occurred from 1982 to 2000, the paper calibrates the parameters of the Jinghe River rainfall-runoff model upbuilt by Mike 11, which can forecast the climate change affects water resources in south mountainous area of Ningxia in the future with the help of climate scenario data. The results show that the simulated runoff data of Jinghe River is close to the observation runoff data, the error of which is 7.2 %. The daily runoff course line is anastomosed; the peak value is also anastomosed; the low runoff is better anastomosed than the high runoff. Based on climate scenario data in PRECIS extent B2 （2011-01-10, 50 kmX 50 km grid）, it is predicted that the runoff of Jinghe River basin will reduce in the future in south mountainous area of Ningxia. Relative to the average of many years, the runoff will reduce between 8.5 % to 24.3% in the future. It would have made a great impact on water supply of eastern Guyuan, the contradiction of water resources supply and demand will be well enlarged.