基于变权-未确知测度理论的岩溶路基稳定性分析

为了研究岩溶区公路路基的稳定性,基于对岩溶路基稳定性影响最大的16个指标建立未确知测度分析模型及各指标的未确知测度函数.利用变权重理论计算指标权重以避免常权评价易导致的"状态失衡"的问题,最后采用置信度识别准则判定路基风险等级.将该方法应用到湖南省石门县干线公路改造当中,得出1#段路基和2#段路基的风险性等级分别为Ⅳ级、Ⅲ级,即2#段路基风险性等级较高,这与工程实际较为符合.该方法可作为路基稳定性分析的一种新手段,其分析结果可作为设计和施工依据.

Analysis of Subgrade Stability in Karst Area Based on Variable Weight Theory-Uncertainty Measurement Method

In order to study the stability of subgrade in karst area， the analysis model of uncertainty measurement was established based on sixteen indexes having the greatest impact on the karst subgrade stability. Also， the uncertain measurement functions of all indicators were established. Each index weight was calculated by using variable weight to avoid the “state out of balance” phenomenon caused by constant weights evaluation. Finally， the risk grade prediction of subgrade stability was made according to grade determination based on confidence identification criteria. This model was applied to the highway reconstruction project in Shimen City Hunan Province. The results showed that the risk grade of 1# subgrade and 2# subgrade were Ⅳ and Ⅲ respectively. Namely， the risk grade of 2# subgrade is higher. The results agree well with the actual engineering. The method can provide a new way for subgrade stability analysis and a reference to subgrade design and construction.