我国铁矿消费强度与钢铁冶炼及加工业的关系

简要分析了我国改革开放以来铁矿消费强度的阶段性变化特征,建立了铁矿消费强度的增量分解模型,应用国民经济投入产出表中数据,分时段对铁矿消费强度进行了增量分解计算和分析.结果表明,2002年前,资本形成以低于或基本等于GDP的增速增长,钢铁冶炼及加工业的铁矿消耗系数下降,致使铁矿消费强度降低;2002~2010年间,资本形成增速高于GDP增速,钢铁冶炼及加工业产出效益下降、铁矿消耗系数升高,致使铁矿消费强度大幅上升.因此,钢铁冶炼及加工业需要解决的主要矛盾是淘汰过剩的低端产能和推动产品结构升级,降低整个经济的铁矿消费强度,达到产业健康稳定发展的目的.

Relationship Between China’s Iron Ore Intensity of Use and the Iron and Steel Smelting and Rolling Industries

China’s iron ore intensity of use was analyzed for its changing characteristics in different periods since the adoption of reform and opening-up policy. An increments decomposition model was developed for the iron ore intensity of use. The increments in iron ore intensity of use in different periods were decomposed and analyzed using the value added and total output data from China’s input-output tables. The results showed that before 2002， the growth rate of capital formation was either lower than or almost equal to that of GDP， and the ISSRI’s iron ore consumption factor decreased to drive down the iron ore intensity of use. From 2002 to 2010， the growth rate of capital formation was higher than that of GDP， and the ISSRI’s output efficiency went down while its iron ore consumption factor went up significantly， resulting in a sharp rise of the iron ore consumption intensity. Accordingly， the main problem to be solved for ISSRI is to eliminate surplus capacity of low-value products and upgrade its product structure so that the iron ore intensity of use in the economic system can be lowered， achieving the goal of sustainable and healthy industrial development.