气候变化对中国洪涝灾害风险的影响

洪涝灾害是中国最严重的自然灾害之一。它不仅分布广、发生频率高, 而且造成巨大的经济损失，是制约经济社会可持续发展的重要因素之一。研究表明: 中国洪涝有明显的高频期、低频期的阶段性年代际特征。近30年来，南方典型洪涝风险区和中小流域极端洪涝事件的频次和强度总体呈现增加、增强态势，大城市和特大型城市暴雨内涝事件也呈增加趋势。在全球气候变暖、城镇化快速发展的背景下，未来中国部分地区强降水、洪涝等极端事件有可能增加、增强，从而加大洪 灾风险和防汛调度指挥难度，并对经济社会可持续发展带来不利的影响。

Impact of climate change on flood disaster risk in China

Flooding is one of the worst natural disaster in China, and it is characterized by wide distribution, high frequency, and huge economic losses, which has been one of the important factors that restrict the economic and social sustainable development. Research shows that flooding in China has significant periodic decadal characteristics of high frequency and low frequency. For nearly 30 years, the inter-annual amplitude of floods in eastern monsoon climate area in China mostly showed a trend of increase. The increased frequency and intensity of flooding in typical southern river basins with high flood risk, and small and medium-sized rivers became prominent, and urban flooding and water-logging caused by storms in metropolises showed an increased trend. Under the background of global climate warming, rapid development of urbanization, heavy rain, floods and other extreme events may increase in occurrence and in intensity in future in parts of China, so as to increase the risk of flood disasters and accelerate the difficulty of flood-prevention and dispatch command, and thus causing unfavorable influences on the economic and social sustainable development.