基于灰色马尔柯夫模型的严重飞行事故频数预测

根据严重飞行事故的发生频数具有趋势性和随机波动性特点，采用结合GM(1，1)模型与马尔柯夫预测技术的联合预测方法，进行严重飞行事故频数的趋势性分析和状态预测，结果表明：灰色马尔柯夫预测模型对严重飞行事故频数的预测结果更科学、更精确。并用灰色马尔柯预测模型，预测世界定期客运航班严重飞行事故频数，其相对误差小于灰色模型预测结果。

Prediction of Frequency of Flight Mishap by Grey - Markov Model

As frequency of flight mishap occurred has tendency and randomizing, this paper has adopted model GM ( 1,1 ) in combination with the forecasting techniques of Markov to prejudge the trend and conditions of the frequency of flight mishap. The prediction of annual flight mishap of world regular passenger transport scheduled flight shows that by using this grey - Markov model, the relative error of the prediction is smaller than the prediction error of the grey model.