明清时期东南沿海地区的台风重建及影响因素分析

通过系统地整理明清时期各个府县的府志、县志、地方志等历史资料，复原明清时期东南沿海地区台风灾害1 180次，建立了台风灾害频率序列, 分析了该地区台风灾害的时空分布规律和主要影响因素.研究结果表明:(1)东南沿海地区的台风影响大多集中在沿海地带，由沿海向内陆减小，且衰变过程很快.受台风影响最多的地区是华南地区，其中广东省受影响最严重. (2)台风的影响因子包括冷暖变化和太阳黑子:冷暖变化平稳时台风频率变化平稳；冷暖变化波动较大时，台风频率呈现较大的震荡性；太阳黑子周期进入活跃性低值时，副热带高压北移，台风对东南沿海地区的影响增加；黑子周期进入活跃期时，副热带高压南移，东南沿海地区的台风发生数量减少.

Reconstructing Typhoons in Southeast Coastal Areas during Ming and Qing Dynasties and Analyzing the Factors

Through systematically sorting out the historical data such as the chronicles of prefectures and counties, 1 180 typhoon disasters in the southeast coastal areas during Ming and Qing Dynasties are reconstructued and the frequency sequence of typhoon disasters is established. The temporal and spatial distribution of typhoon disasters in the region and their main factors are analyzed. The results are as follows. The impacts of typhoons concentrate in the coastal areas and decrease from the coastal areas to the inland. The decay of typhoons is a rapid process. The area most seriously affected by the typhoons is South China, of which Guangdong Province suffers the most. The factors for typhoons include temperature changes and sunspot. When temperature changes are stable, the typhoon frequency changes smoothly. The typhoon frequency shows great turbulence when temperature fluctuations are steep. When the sunspot cycle is at a low activity value, the subtropical high pressure moves northward, and the influence of typhoon in the southeast coastal areas increases. When the sunspot cycle enters an active period, the subtropical high pressure moves southward, and the influence of typhoons in the southeast coastal areas decreases.