基于关机点状态的战术弹道导弹落点估计

如何准确快速地预报TBM的落点是反TBM部署以及提高拦截概率的关键步骤.首先介绍了反导作战中的常用坐标系;在适当假设的前提下,建立了基于关机点状态的弹道导弹落点估计数学模型,模型简单、精确,克服了现有估计方法的弊端;并对落点估计误差用概率圆的方法进行了分析.利用所构建的模型进行了Monte Carlo仿真,从仿真结果看出:仿真所得出的TBM落点估计值与真实值之间存在偏差,这主要是由于模型误差以及再入段没有考虑大气阻力影响等原因造成的,但偏差量较小,说明了该模型具有很好的可靠性及实用性,对TBM落点估计具有一定的实际意义.

Impact Point Estimation of Tactical Ballistic Missile Based on the State of Burnout Point

How to truly and quickly forecast the TBM impact point is a critical and decisive step in ATBM deployment and in raising the intercept probability. This paper introduces the reference frame in the process of anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile, builds up a mathematic model of impact point estimation based on the state of burnout point under proper assumption. The model is simple and precise, and the application of it can get over the shortage and abuse of the existing method. And simultaneously the error of impact point is analyzed by using the method of CEP, and then Monte Carlo simulation is done by using the model. The simulating results show that there is a small windage between the estimating value and the true value in the impact point estimation, which is actually caused by the model error and air resistance, etc., the model mentioned in this paper has a less error in impact point estimation. This just shows that the model is bettering reliability and practicality, and is of some practical meaning in TBM impact point estimation.