| 岚河流域径流中长期GM(1,2)时滞预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 高宗强.岚河流域径流中长期GM(1,2)时滞预测模型[J].太原理工大学学报,2006,37(1):71-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高宗强 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省水文水资源勘测局,山西,太原,030001 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对半干旱地区的降雨径流机制比较复杂这一特点,应用灰色系统理论,提出一种较适合于水文实测资料缺乏情况下的中长期预报方法,建立了岚河流域径流中长期GM(1,2)时滞预测模型。运用该模型对岚河流域的未来径流量进行了预测,结果表明,模型具有比较高的预测精度,且考虑2年时滞效应的灰色预测模型具有比较好的预测结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 岚河流域 灰色系统 时滞 GM(1 2)预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-9432（2006）01-0071-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-03-09 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年3月9日 |
GM(1,2) Time-lag Model of Mid-long Term Runoff Forecasting on Lanhe River |
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| GAO Zong-qiang.GM(1,2) Time-lag Model of Mid-long Term Runoff Forecasting on Lanhe River[J].Journal of Taiyuan University of Technology,2006,37(1):71-73. |
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| Authors: | GAO Zong-qiang |
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| Institution: | Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Shanxi , Taiyuan 030001 ,China |
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| Abstract: | Lanhe watershed,which is a big branch of Fenhe River, is located in Shanxi province.The average annual precipitation is 523 mm,and the runoff is 1.76 m~3/s.The distribution of precipitation over a year and space is extremely non-uniform.It belongs to the semi-arid region.Because of the complexity of the mechanism of rainfall-runoff generation,based on the grey-system characteristics,a method of mid-long term runoff forecasting was suggested,the time-lag existing grey incidence analysis model and the predict hydrological model is put forth,and the GM(1,2) time lag model is set up.The runoff of Lanhe river basin is predicted with the model,and the result is accurate and rational. |
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| Keywords: | Lanhe river basin grey incidence analysis Time-lag GM(1 2) model |
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