项目风险损失程度的估计方法研究

项目风险和不确定的管理程度已成为决定项目成功与否的关键因素，而项目风险损失程度的估计是项目风险管理中的重要环节。本文针对传统的历史资料估计方法中存在的不足，采取专家估计和有关法规相结合的办法进行损失程度估计，提出了以最小估计损失额、预期损失额和最大估计损失额3种风险损失来衡量风险事件后果，并运用类决策树法、集值统计法及转换法等3种估计方法进行项目风险损失程度的估计。

Research on evaluation method of loss degree of project risk

Managing project risk and uncertainty has been a key factor that decide whether the project is successful or not. So theevaluation of loss degree of project risk becomes a very important activity in the project risk management. Based on the shortageof traditional history material evaluation method. In this paper, a new method is proposed, which combine expert evaluation andlaw regulation to estimate loss degree of project risk, The consequence of risk accident can be measured by minimum estimateddamage, expected damage and maximum estimated damage, and in this paper, the loss degree of project risk is evaluated by usingdecision-making tree, set-valued statistic and transformation method to evaluate .