农业系统的定价模型及优化控制

借助于马尔可夫过程理论确定出转移概率密度·利用扩散随机过程理论及分布参数系统模型来描述某个地域当农产品供给、需求及价格随机变化的情况下,农业生产及农产品需求的分布方程,其中包括分布密度函数的积微分方程和初边值条件·探讨了在均衡条件下以寻求生产者、消费者及营销企业三方面利益之和最大化为目的的农业系统最优定价模型,同时对农产品的生产量、需求量、农产品的农户价格及市场零售价格进行了预测·为政府制定农业价格政策提供了科学的参考依据·

Pricing Model of Agricultural System and Its Optimal Control

Resorting to the theory of Markov processes, the transition probability density is determined. Then, the distribution equations of agricultural products supply and demand in a certain area are derived using stochastic diffusion processes and model of distributed parameter system under conditions that the price, supply and demand of farm produce are all volatile stochastically, including the integral/differential equation condition of boundary and initial value of a distribution density function. A optimal pricing model for agricultural system is thus developed and discussed with the purposed of seeking for the maximization of the overall interests of producer, consumer and marketing business and keeping the three sides in equilibrium. Meanwhile, a prediction is done to the yield and demand of farming produce, farmer's selling or cost price and goods' market or retail price so as to provide a scientific and pointed reference to government to formulate properly agricultural pricing policy.