堆石坝变形监控的统计、混合模型与反演分析

为探讨面板坝的运行性态，采用回归分析与反分析方法，对“七五”期间试验坝堆石体施工中及竣工后的实测位移资料进行分析，建立了统计模型与混合模型，研究结果表明，堆石坝的实测位移数据可以按自变量因子进行分离；施工期堆石体的蠕变不有忽略，其占相当比例；堆石材料本构关系中的参数的试验值与实测反演值有一定差别；对蓄水后的实测资料进行分析，建立预报方程，可实现大坝运行的监控和反馈。

Statistical and Hybrid Model and Inversion on Deformation Monitoring of Rockfill Dam

In order to study the performance of CFRD, regression analysis and inverse analysis are adopted to investigate the observed data of displacement of the rockfill dam under and after construction. That is an experimental dam in the seventh Five Year Plan of our country. Statistical models and mixing models are established. The findings show that the observed data of displacement of the rockfill dam can be detached according to independent variable factors, that the creepage of the rockfill body during construction can not be neglected and that there are intervals between the experimental values and the values of inverse analysis of parameters of stress strain relation of the rockfill body. If the observed data after water impoundment are analysed and the prognostive equations are established, the monitoring and feedback about safe performance of CFRD can be realized.