基于水动力模型的泥石流风险分析

以水动力模型为研究依据，以降水、来流等自然条件为泥石流发生的推动因子，加之地形、地质、植被、人口等影响因子，构建了泥石流风险分析模型。选取广西5个市作为研究区域，采用河网分级编码方法对河网水系信息作概化处理。根据粗糙集理论，采用了一种可以从客观角度上确定影响因子权值的综合权重计算方法，构建了泥石流灾害危险性评判机制。将计算模拟结果置于广西地质灾害分布统计与2011年全州县泥石流灾害事件中进行对比验证，结果表明基于水动力模型的泥石流风险分析是合理且可靠的。

Risk Analysis of Debris Flow Based on Hydrodynamic Model

Based on the hydrodynamic model and established a mathematical model of debris flow drove by rainfall and river runoff, and took topography, geological formation, plant mulching and demographic distribution as the impact factors. Five cities of Guangxi have been selected as the research area, the rivers information has been generalized by the river net codification. Based on the rough set theory, a synthesized weight calculation method of the impact factors has been presented, the weight of these factors could be determined objectively, thus a risk analysis model of debris flow has been established. Indeed, the numerical simulation results have been validated in statistical results of geological hazard distribution and the debris flow event of Guangxi, it shows that the mathematical model of debris flow based on hydrodynamic theory is reasonable and feasible.