取精估计法在八面河探区资源潜量评价中的应用

针对油气勘探过程中的取精现象 ,即随着勘探程度的提高油藏规模逐渐减小这一规律 ,通过已发现油藏规模的对数值和发现序数呈一负斜率的直线关系 ,可以外推未来待发现油藏的规模分布。对前人提出的油藏大小对数值符合变方差正态分布的观点提出了改进方案 ,并将其应用于渤海湾盆地济阳坳陷南斜坡八面河探区油气潜力和勘探效益的预测。预测结果表明 ,从模拟的勘探效益变化趋势可知 ,未来 1口探井的勘探量平均将低于 30×10 4 t,且处于一种低效且稳定下降的阶段。预计再钻探井 16 0口 ,将发现 48个油藏 ,资源潜量均值为 2 7× 10 6t。这种预测方法最适宜应用在勘探程度较高、产量比较稳定的探区。

Evaluation of petroleum resource potential in Bamianhe area with creaming estimation method

The creaming phenomena can reveal the size reduction of oil pool in the exploration process and be used to extrapolate the sizes of oil pool to be discovered with a linear correlation between the logarithms of oil pool sizes and order of discovery. The logarithms for pool size obey Gauss distribution with varied standard deviations, which differs from the former viewpoint. Some improved calculation schemes are presented. The exploration potential and benefit of Bamianhe exploration play in Jiyang depression of Bohai Bay basin were predicted. The simulation shows that the oil production will be less than 300 thousands tons per well in future and may be declined gradually. There will discover 48 pools containing 27 million tons of oil in the exploration of prospective 160 wells. The prediction method is suitable to maturely discovered areas.