灰色时序组合模型的改进及高校报名趋势预测

剖析了高校报名人数时间序列数据的特点,发现其序列数据兼具趋势性和随机波动的特点,传统模型中的灰色时序组合模型拟和这类数据有一定的优势,通过实验发现该模型的误差还是较大的,对该组合模型在组合方式上进行了创新性的改进,为了检验模型,将其应用于高考报名的趋势分析,发现无论是模型的拟和精度还是预测能力都有了较大提高.

THE IMPROVEMENT ON GREY AND TIME SERIES COMBINATION MODEL AND THE APPLICATION IN PREDICTION OF ENTRY EXAMINATION FOR COLLEGE

This paper analyses the time series data first,discovers that it has not only trending but also random motion feature.The traditional grey and time series combination model does have some advantage in drawing up this kind of series,but some experiments discover that error of that model is still large.We make innovational improvement in this combine model by modifying the way of combining.In order to test this model,we used it in the tendency prediction of the entry examination for college,discovered that there is a great improvement both in drawing up accuracy and the prediction ability.