Spatiotemporal distribution and decadal change of the monthly temperature predictability limit in China |
| |
Authors: | Weijing Li Jingpeng Liu Lijuan Chen Peiqun Zhang Hongli Ren |
| |
Affiliation: | 1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China 2. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
|
| |
Abstract: | Based on the nonlinear Lyapunov exponent and nonlinear error growth dynamics, the spatiotemporal distribution and decadal change of the monthly temperature predictability limit (MTPL) in China is quantitatively analyzed. Data used are daily temperature of 518 stations from 1960 to 2011 in China. The results are summarized as follows: (1) The spatial distribution of MTPL varies regionally. MTPL is higher in most areas of Northeast China, southwest Yunnan Province, and the eastern part of Northwest China. MTPL is lower in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huang-huai Basin. (2) The spatial distribution of MTPL varies distinctly with seasons. MTPL is higher in boreal summer than in boreal winter. (3) MTPL has had distinct decadal changes in China, with increase since the 1970s and decrease since 2000. Especially in the northeast part of the country, MTPL has significantly increased since 1986. Decadal change of MTPL in Northwest China, Northeast China and the Huang-huai Basin may have a close relationship with the persistence of temperature anomaly. Since the beginning of the 21st century, MTPL has decreased slowly in most of the country, except for the south. The research provides a scientific foundation to understand the mechanism of monthly temperature anomalies and an important reference for improvement of monthly temperature prediction. |
| |
Keywords: | Monthly temperature Predictability Spatiotemporal distribution Decadal change Nonlinear Lyapunov Exponent(NLLE) |
本文献已被 CNKI 维普 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |
|