考虑技术不确定性的新技术采纳时间策略

新技术应该及早采纳还是延迟采纳，涉及到企业构建持续竞争力.基于Farzin的最优技术采纳模型，从新技术的预期收益和出现时机两个方面重新界定新技术的不确定性，构建了制造企业采纳新技术的动态规划模型，并进行了数值算例分析.研究表明:对于较快出现或较快增长的新技术，企业的时间策略是等待和慎重评估，以免陷入技术陷阱(越引进越落后)；而对于变动成本(设备升级成本、人力配备及其他管理成本等)较大的技术，企业的时间策略是及早采纳.

Time Strategies of Innovative Technology Adoption Considering Technical Uncertainty

Whether an innovative technology should be adopted early or with delay involves the construction of sustainable competitiveness. Based on Farzin’s optimal technology adoption model， the uncertainty of innovative technologies is redefined from two aspects of expected income and occurrence time of innovative technologies， a dynamic programming model for manufacturing enterprises is constructed to adopt innovative technologies， and a numerical example analysis is given. The research shows that for the technologies that appear or grow rapidly， the time strategy of enterprises is to wait and carefully evaluate， so as to avoid falling into the technology trap(the more introduced， the more backward); for technologies with large variable costs(equipment upgrading cost， manpower allocation and other management costs)， enterprises’ time strategy is to adopt them as soon as possible.